Kale, Yellen anapita ku China, akuti kunyamula "ntchito" zambiri, atolankhani akunja kuti amuthandize mwachidule chimodzi mwa izi: "kutsimikizira akuluakulu aku China kuti United States m'dzina lachitetezo cha dziko kuti aletse China kupeza ukadaulo wovuta monga ma semiconductors ndi njira zingapo zomwe sizingawononge chuma cha China."
Zakhala 2023, United States idakhazikitsa chiletso pamakampani aku China chip sichikhala chochepera khumi ndi awiri, mndandanda wamabizinesi akumtunda ndi anthu opitilira 2,000, chosiyanacho chingapangitsenso chifukwa chachikulu chotere, chokhudza, ndi "inde, ndimalira mpaka kufa."
Mwinamwake Achimereka iwo eniwo sanapirire kuziwona izo, zomwe posakhalitsa zinakhudzidwa ndi nkhani ina mu New York Times.
Patatha masiku anayi Yellen atachoka ku China, Alex Palmer, mtolankhani wodziwika bwino wa ku China m'mabwalo atolankhani akunja, adasindikiza Nkhani ya NYT yofotokoza za blockade ya US chip, yomwe idalembedwa mwachindunji pamutuwu: Ichi ndi Nkhondo Yankhondo.
Alex Palmer, womaliza maphunziro a Harvard komanso katswiri woyamba wa Yanjing ku Peking University, adalembapo kale dziko la China, kuphatikiza Xu Xiang, fentanyl ndi TikTok, ndipo ndi mnzake wakale yemwe wakhumudwitsa anthu aku China. Koma adawapangitsa Achimerika kuti amuuze zoona zake za chip.
M'nkhaniyi, woyankha wina ananena mosabisa mawu kuti "sikuti sitingalole kuti China ipite patsogolo paukadaulo, tisinthanso ukadaulo wawo" ndikuti kuletsa kwa chip "ndikungofuna kuthetseratu chilengedwe chonse chaukadaulo cha China."
Anthu a ku America anatenga liwu lakuti “kuthetsa,” lomwe limagwirizana ndi tanthauzo la “kutheratu” ndi “kuzula,” ndipo kaŵirikaŵiri limatchulidwa kutsogolo kwa kachirombo ka nthomba kapena magulu ogulitsa mankhwala a ku Mexico. Tsopano, cholinga cha mawuwa ndi makampani apamwamba a ku China. Ngati izi zikuyenda bwino, zitha kukhudza kupita patsogolo kwa China m'badwo, olemba amalosera.
Aliyense amene akufuna kudziwa kukula kwa nkhondoyo amangofunika kutafuna mawu akuti kuthetseratu mobwerezabwereza.
01
Kukula kwa nkhondo
Lamulo la mpikisano ndi lamulo la nkhondo ndi zinthu ziwiri zosiyana kotheratu.
Mpikisano wamalonda ndi mpikisano mkati mwa malamulo, koma nkhondo si yofanana, wotsutsa alibe pafupifupi kusamala malamulo ndi zoletsa zilizonse, adzachita chilichonse kuti akwaniritse zolinga zawo. Makamaka m'munda wa tchipisi, United States imatha kusintha malamulo nthawi zonse - mumasinthira ku seti imodzi, nthawi yomweyo idalowa m'malo mwatsopano kuti ithane nanu.
Mwachitsanzo, mu 2018, Dipatimenti ya Zamalonda ku United States inavomereza Fujian Jinhua ndi "mndandanda wazinthu", zomwe zinapangitsa kuti omalizawo ayimitsidwe kupanga (zomwe zayambanso kugwira ntchito); Mu 2019, Huawei adaphatikizidwanso pamndandanda wamabungwe, akuletsa makampani aku America kuti asapereke zinthu ndi ntchito kwa iwo, monga pulogalamu ya EDA ndi GMS ya Google.
Pambuyo pozindikira kuti njirazi sizingathetseretu Huawei, United States idasintha malamulo: kuyambira Meyi 2020, idayamba kufuna kuti makampani onse omwe amagwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo waku America azipereka Huawei, monga maziko a TSMC, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti Hisiculus asayime komanso kutsika kwakuthwa kwa mafoni a Huawei, kubweretsa kuwonongeka kwa ma yuan oposa biliyoni 100 pachaka chilichonse ku China.
Pambuyo pake, oyang'anira a Biden adakulitsa chandamale chamoto kuchokera ku "bizinesi" kupita ku "mafakitale", ndipo mabizinesi ambiri aku China, mayunivesite ndi mabungwe ofufuza asayansi adaphatikizidwa motsatizana pamndandanda woletsa. Pa Okutobala 7, 2022, Bungwe Loona za Zamalonda ndi Chitetezo ku US Department of Commerce's (BIS) linapereka malamulo atsopano oyendetsera katundu wakunja omwe pafupifupi amakhazikitsa "denga" pa ma semiconductors aku China:
Tchipisi zomveka zochepera 16nm kapena 14nm, zosungirako za NAND zokhala ndi zigawo 128 kapena kupitilira apo, mabwalo ophatikizika a DRAM okhala ndi 18nm kapena kuchepera, ndi zina zotere ndizoletsedwa kutumizidwa kunja, ndi tchipisi tapakompyuta zokhala ndi mphamvu yapakompyuta yopitilira 4800TOPS ndi bandwidth yolumikizana yopitilira 600GB/s imaletsedwanso kugulitsa zinthu, kaya zopezeka.
M'mawu a tank yoganiza ku Washington: Trump ikuyang'ana mabizinesi, pomwe Biden akugunda mafakitale.
Powerenga buku la Vuto la Matupi Atatu, ndizosavuta kuti owerenga wamba amvetsetse Yang mo ya Zhizi kuti atseke ukadaulo wa Earth; Koma zoona zake n’zakuti, pamene anthu ambiri osagwira ntchito m’mafakitale amayang’ana pa chiletso cha chip, nthawi zambiri amakhala ndi maganizo akuti: malinga ngati mutsatira malamulo a ku United States, simudzatsutsidwa; Mukakunamizirani, zikutanthauza kuti mwachita cholakwika.
Lingaliro ili ndi lachilendo, chifukwa anthu ambiri amakhalabe mu "mpikisano" wamalingaliro. Koma mu “nkhondo,” lingaliro limeneli lingakhale bodza. M'zaka zaposachedwa, olamulira ambiri a semiconductor awonetsa kuti kafukufuku wodziyimira pawokha wabizinesi akayamba kulowerera m'magawo apamwamba (ngakhale kafukufuku woyambirira), adzakumana ndi khoma losawoneka la gasi.
Kufufuza ndi chitukuko cha tchipisi tapamwamba kwambiri kumatengera ukadaulo wapadziko lonse lapansi, monga kupanga tchipisi ta 5nm SoC, muyenera kugula ma cores kuchokera ku Arm, kugula mapulogalamu kuchokera ku Candence kapena Synopsys, kugula zovomerezeka kuchokera ku Qualcomm, ndikugwirizanitsa mphamvu zopanga ndi TSMC…
Mlandu umodzi ndi kampani ya chip yomwe ili ndi wopanga mafoni a m'manja, yomwe idatsegula gawo lothandizira kafukufuku ndi chitukuko ku Taiwan kuti likope matalente am'deralo kuti achite tchipisi ta ogula, koma posakhalitsa adakumana ndi "kufufuza" kwamadipatimenti oyenera ku Taiwan. Pothedwa nzeru, wothandizirayo adalumphira kuchokera kwa mayiyo ngati wopereka payekha kunja kwa thupi, koma adayenera kusamala.
Pambuyo pake, wothandizira ku Taiwan adakakamizika kutseka pambuyo pa kuukira kwa "otsutsa" aku Taiwan omwe adagonjetsa ndi kuchotsa ma seva ake (palibe zophwanya zomwe zinapezeka). Ndipo miyezi ingapo pambuyo pake, kampani yake ya makolo idangochitapo kanthu kuti isungunuke - oyang'anira apamwamba adapeza kuti pakuletsa kusintha, bola ngati ndi pulojekiti yapamwamba kwambiri, pali chiopsezo cha "kudina kumodzi zero."
Zowonadi, bizinesi yosayembekezereka ikakumana ndi wogawana nawo wamkulu yemwe amakonda njira yaukadaulo ya Maoxiang, zotulukapo zake zimakhala zopanda pake.
Kutha kwa "kudina kamodzi" kumeneku kwenikweni ndikokuti United States yasintha "gawo lazachuma padziko lonse lapansi lotengera malonda aulere" lomwe m'mbuyomu linkagwiritsidwa ntchito kukhala chida choukira adani. Akatswiri a ku America atulukira mawu akuti kudalirana kwa zida kuti athetse khalidweli.
Pambuyo poona zinthu zimenezi bwinobwino, zinthu zambiri zimene zinayamba kukangana siziyenera kukambirana. Mwachitsanzo, palibe chifukwa chochitira lampooning Huawei chifukwa chophwanya lamulo la Iran, chifukwa zanenedwa momveka bwino kuti "Iran ndi chowiringula"; Ndizosadabwitsa kuimba mlandu China chifukwa cha mfundo zake zamafakitale, chifukwa United States ikugwiritsa ntchito $ 53 biliyoni kuti ithandizire kupanga chip ndikulimbikitsa kuyambiranso.
Clausewitz adanenapo kuti, "Nkhondo ndikupitilira ndale." Chimodzimodzinso ndi nkhondo za chip.
02
The blockade kuluma mmbuyo
Anthu ena adzafunsa kuti: United States kotero "dziko lonse kumenyana", palibe njira yothetsera izo?
Ngati mukuyang'ana matsenga amtunduwu kuti muthyole mdani, sichoncho. Computer sayansi yokha anabadwira mu United States, makamaka Integrated dera makampani, mbali ina kugwiritsa ntchito njira za nkhondo kusewera ufulu kulankhula za unyolo mafakitale, China akhoza kutenga nthawi yaitali kugonjetsa kumtunda ndi kunsi kwa mtsinje pang'ono ndi pang'ono, umene ndi ndondomeko yaitali.
Komabe, sizowona kunena kuti "nkhondo" iyi ilibe zotsatira zake ndipo ingagwiritsidwe ntchito kwa nthawi yaitali. Chotsatira chachikulu cha kutsekedwa kwa gawo lonse la US ndi ichi: chimapatsa China mwayi wodalira njira za msika, osati mphamvu yokonzekera, kuthetsa vutoli.
Chiganizochi chingawoneke chovuta kuchimvetsetsa poyamba. Tikhoza kumvetsetsa kaye mphamvu ya kukonzekera koyera ndi chiyani, mwachitsanzo, mu makampani a semiconductor, pali ntchito yapadera yothandizira kafukufuku wamkulu waumisiri, wotchedwa "teknoloji yayikulu kwambiri yophatikizira dera ndi ndondomeko yonse", makampaniwa nthawi zambiri amatchedwa 02 ndalama zapadera, zoyera zachuma.
02 apadera makampani ambiri atenga, pamene wolemba anali mu semiconductor ndalama, pamene kafukufuku kampani anaona zambiri "02 wapadera" anasiya chitsanzo, ataona kumverera kwa osakaniza, tinganene bwanji? Zida zambiri zomwe zaunjikidwa m'nyumba yosungiramo katundu ndi dzanja la imvi, mwina pokhapokha pamene atsogoleri oyendera adzatulutsidwa kuti akapulitsidwe.
Zachidziwikire, pulojekiti yapadera ya 02 idapereka ndalama zamtengo wapatali zamabizinesi m'nyengo yozizira panthawiyo, koma kumbali ina, kugwiritsa ntchito bwino ndalamazi sikuli kwakukulu. Kudalira ndalama zothandizira ndalama zokha (ngakhale ndalamazo zili makampani), ndikuwopa kuti n'zovuta kupanga matekinoloje ndi zinthu zomwe zingathe kugulitsidwa. Aliyense amene anachitapo kafukufuku amadziwa izi.
Nkhondo za chip zisanachitike, China inali ndi zida zambiri zovutirapo, zida ndi makampani ang'onoang'ono a chip omwe amavutika kupikisana ndi anzawo akunja, ndipo makampani ngati SMIC, JCET komanso ngakhale Huawei nthawi zambiri samasamala kwambiri za iwo, ndipo n'zosavuta kumvetsetsa chifukwa chake: sakanagwiritsa ntchito zinthu zapakhomo pomwe amatha kugula zinthu zakunja zokhwima komanso zotsika mtengo.
Koma kutsekedwa kwa United States pamakampani a chip ku China kwabweretsa mwayi wosowa kumakampaniwa.
Pankhani ya blockade, opanga zapakhomo omwe adanyalanyazidwa kale ndi nsalu kapena zomata zoyeserera adathamangitsidwa kumashelefu, ndipo zida zambiri ndi zida zidatumizidwa pamzere wopanga kuti zitsimikizidwe. Ndipo chilala chotalikirapo ndi mvula ya mafakitale ang'onoang'ono apanyumba mwadzidzidzi zidawona chiyembekezo, palibe amene adayerekeza kuwononga mwayi wamtengo wapatali uwu, kotero adagwiranso ntchito molimbika kukonza zinthu.
Ngakhale uku ndi kuzungulira kwamkati kwa malonda, kukakamizidwa kunja kwa malonda, koma mphamvu yake imakhalanso yothandiza kwambiri kuposa mphamvu yokonzekera bwino: chipani chimodzi chachitsulo cholowa m'malo mwa nyumba, chipani chimodzi chikugwira udzu, ndipo mu gulu la sayansi ndi luso lamakono lolemera kwambiri louziridwa ndi semiconductor kumtunda pafupifupi gawo lililonse loyima pali makampani ambiri.
Tawerengera phindu lamakampani a semiconductor aku China m'zaka khumi zapitazi (makampani okhawo omwe ali ndi zaka khumi zogwira ntchito mosalekeza amasankhidwa), ndipo tiwona kukula bwino: zaka 10 zapitazo, phindu lonse lamakampani am'nyumba awa linali loposa 3 biliyoni, ndipo pofika 2022, phindu lawo lonse lidapitilira 33.4 biliyoni, pafupifupi zaka 10 zapitazo.
Nthawi yotumiza: Oct-30-2023
