Kalekale, Yellen adapita ku China, akuti agwira ntchito zambiri, atolankhani akunja kuti amuthandize kunena mwachidule chimodzi mwazo: "kutsimikizira akuluakulu aku China kuti United States m'dzina lachitetezo cha dziko kuletsa China kuti ipeze. ukadaulo wodziwika bwino monga ma semiconductors ndi njira zingapo zomwe sizingawononge chuma cha China. ”
Zakhala 2023, United States idakhazikitsa chiletso pamakampani aku China chip sichikhala chozungulira pafupifupi khumi ndi awiri, mndandanda wamabizinesi akumtunda ndi anthu opitilira 2,000, chosiyanacho chingakhalenso chifukwa chachikulu chotere, chokhudza mtima. , kungoti “Iye ndithu, ndilira imfa.
Mwinamwake Achimereka iwo eniwo sanapirire kuziwona izo, zomwe posakhalitsa zinakhudzidwa ndi nkhani ina mu New York Times.
Patatha masiku anayi Yellen atachoka ku China, Alex Palmer, mtolankhani wodziwika bwino wa ku China m'mabwalo atolankhani akunja, adasindikiza Nkhani ya NYT yofotokoza za blockade ya US chip, yomwe idalembedwa mwachindunji pamutuwu: Ichi ndi Nkhondo Yankhondo.
Alex Palmer, womaliza maphunziro a Harvard komanso katswiri woyamba wa Yanjing ku Peking University, adalembapo kale dziko la China, kuphatikiza Xu Xiang, fentanyl ndi TikTok, ndipo ndi mnzake wakale yemwe wakhumudwitsa anthu aku China. Koma adawapangitsa Achimerika kuti amuuze zoona zake za chip.
M'nkhaniyi, woyankha wina ananena mosabisa kuti "sikuti sitidzalola kuti dziko la China lipite patsogolo paukadaulo, tidzasintha momwe ukadaulo wawo ulili pano" komanso kuti kuletsa kwa chip "ndikungofuna kuthetseratu chilengedwe chonse chaukadaulo chaku China. ”
Anthu a ku America anatenga liwu lakuti “kuthetsa,” lomwe limagwirizana ndi tanthauzo la “kutheratu” ndi “kuzula,” ndipo kaŵirikaŵiri limatchulidwa kutsogolo kwa kachirombo ka nthomba kapena magulu ogulitsa mankhwala a ku Mexico. Tsopano, cholinga cha mawuwa ndi makampani apamwamba a ku China. Ngati izi zikuyenda bwino, zitha kukhudza kupita patsogolo kwa China m'badwo, olemba amalosera.
Aliyense amene akufuna kudziwa kukula kwa nkhondoyo amangofunika kutafuna mawu akuti kuthetseratu mobwerezabwereza.
01
Kukula kwa nkhondo
Lamulo la mpikisano ndi lamulo la nkhondo ndi zinthu ziwiri zosiyana kotheratu.
Mpikisano wamalonda ndi mpikisano mkati mwa malamulo, koma nkhondo si yofanana, wotsutsa alibe pafupifupi kusamala malamulo ndi zoletsa zilizonse, adzachita chilichonse kuti akwaniritse zolinga zawo. Makamaka m'munda wa tchipisi, United States imatha kusintha malamulo nthawi zonse - mumasinthira ku seti imodzi, nthawi yomweyo idalowa m'malo mwatsopano kuti ithane nanu.
Mwachitsanzo, mu 2018, Dipatimenti ya Zamalonda ku United States inavomereza Fujian Jinhua ndi "mndandanda wazinthu", zomwe zinapangitsa kuti omalizawo ayimitsidwe kupanga (zomwe zayambanso kugwira ntchito); Mu 2019, Huawei adaphatikizidwanso pamndandanda wamabungwe, akuletsa makampani aku America kuti asapereke zinthu ndi ntchito kwa iwo, monga pulogalamu ya EDA ndi GMS ya Google.
Pambuyo pozindikira kuti njirazi sizingathetseretu Huawei, United States idasintha malamulo: kuyambira Meyi 2020, idayamba kufuna kuti makampani onse omwe amagwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo waku America azipereka Huawei, monga TSMC's foundry, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti Hisiculus asayime. ndi kutsika kwakukulu kwa mafoni a m'manja a Huawei, kumabweretsa kuwonongeka kwa ma yuan oposa 100 biliyoni ku makampani opanga mafakitale ku China chaka chilichonse.
Pambuyo pake, oyang'anira a Biden adakulitsa chandamale chamoto kuchokera ku "bizinesi" kupita ku "mafakitale", ndipo mabizinesi ambiri aku China, mayunivesite ndi mabungwe ofufuza asayansi adaphatikizidwa motsatizana pamndandanda woletsa. Pa Okutobala 7, 2022, Bungwe Loona za Zamalonda ndi Chitetezo ku US Department of Commerce's (BIS) linapereka malamulo atsopano oyendetsera katundu wakunja omwe pafupifupi amakhazikitsa "denga" pa ma semiconductors aku China:
Tchipisi zomveka zochepera 16nm kapena 14nm, kusungirako kwa NAND kokhala ndi zigawo 128 kapena kupitilira apo, mabwalo ophatikizika a DRAM okhala ndi 18nm kapena kuchepera, ndi zina zotere ndizoletsedwa kutumizidwa kunja, ndipo tchipisi ta computing tokhala ndi mphamvu yama computing yopitilira 4800TOPS ndi bandwidth yolumikizira yopitilira 600GB/s imaletsedwanso kupezeka. , kaya zoyambira kapena zogulitsa mwachindunji.
M'mawu a tank yoganiza ku Washington: Trump ikuyang'ana mabizinesi, pomwe Biden akugunda mafakitale.
Powerenga buku la Vuto la Matupi Atatu, ndizosavuta kuti owerenga wamba amvetsetse Yang mo ya Zhizi kuti atseke ukadaulo wa Earth; Koma zoona zake n’zakuti, pamene anthu ambiri osagwira ntchito m’mafakitale amayang’ana pa chiletso cha chip, nthawi zambiri amakhala ndi maganizo akuti: malinga ngati mutsatira malamulo a ku United States, simudzatsutsidwa; Mukakunamizirani, zikutanthauza kuti mwachita cholakwika.
Lingaliro ili ndi lachilendo, chifukwa anthu ambiri amakhalabe mu "mpikisano" wamalingaliro. Koma mu “nkhondo,” lingaliro limeneli lingakhale bodza. M'zaka zaposachedwa, olamulira ambiri a semiconductor awonetsa kuti kafukufuku wodziyimira pawokha wabizinesi akayamba kulowerera m'magawo apamwamba (ngakhale kafukufuku woyambirira), adzakumana ndi khoma losawoneka la gasi.
Kufufuza ndi chitukuko cha tchipisi tapamwamba kwambiri kumatengera ukadaulo wapadziko lonse lapansi, monga kupanga tchipisi ta 5nm SoC, muyenera kugula ma cores kuchokera ku Arm, kugula mapulogalamu kuchokera ku Candence kapena Synopsys, kugula ma patent kuchokera ku Qualcomm, ndikugwirizanitsa. mphamvu yopanga ndi TSMC… Malingana ngati izi zachitika, zidzalowa m'munda wa masomphenya a BIS kuyang'aniridwa ndi Dipatimenti ya Zamalonda ya US.
Mlandu umodzi ndi kampani ya chip yomwe ili ndi wopanga mafoni a m'manja, yomwe idatsegula gawo lothandizira kafukufuku ndi chitukuko ku Taiwan kuti likope matalente am'deralo kuti achite tchipisi ta ogula, koma posakhalitsa adakumana ndi "kufufuza" kwamadipatimenti oyenera ku Taiwan. Pothedwa nzeru, wothandizirayo adalumphira kuchokera kwa mayiyo ngati wopereka payekha kunja kwa thupi, koma adayenera kusamala.
Pambuyo pake, wothandizira ku Taiwan adakakamizika kutseka pambuyo pa kuukira kwa "otsutsa" aku Taiwan omwe adagonjetsa ndi kuchotsa ma seva ake (palibe zophwanya zomwe zinapezeka). Ndipo miyezi ingapo pambuyo pake, kampani ya makolo ake inangochitapo kanthu kuti isungunuke - oyang'anira apamwamba adapeza kuti pansi pa chiletso chosinthika, malinga ngati ndi ntchito yapamwamba ya chip, pali chiopsezo cha "kudina kamodzi zero. ”
Zowonadi, bizinesi yosayembekezereka ikakumana ndi wogawana nawo wamkulu yemwe amakonda njira yaukadaulo ya Maoxiang, zotulukapo zake zimakhala zatha.
Kutha kwa "kudina kamodzi" kumeneku kwenikweni ndikokuti United States yasintha "gawo lazachuma padziko lonse lapansi lotengera malonda aulere" lomwe m'mbuyomu linkagwiritsidwa ntchito kukhala chida choukira adani. Akatswiri a ku America atulukira mawu akuti kudalirana kwa zida kuti athetse khalidweli.
Pambuyo poona zinthu zimenezi bwinobwino, zinthu zambiri zomwe zinayamba kukangana siziyenera kukambirana. Mwachitsanzo, palibe chifukwa chochitira lampooning Huawei chifukwa chophwanya lamulo la Iran, chifukwa zanenedwa momveka bwino kuti "Iran ndi chowiringula"; Ndizosadabwitsa kuimba mlandu China chifukwa cha mfundo zake zamafakitale, chifukwa United States ikugwiritsa ntchito $ 53 biliyoni kuti ithandizire kupanga chip ndikulimbikitsa kuyambiranso.
Clausewitz adanenapo kuti, "Nkhondo ndikupitilira ndale." Chimodzimodzinso ndi nkhondo za chip.
02
The blockade kuluma mmbuyo
Anthu ena adzafunsa kuti: United States kotero "dziko lonse kumenyana", palibe njira yothetsera izo?
Ngati mukuyang'ana matsenga amtunduwu kuti muswe mdani, sichoncho. Computer sayansi yokha anabadwira mu United States, makamaka Integrated dera makampani, mbali ina kugwiritsa ntchito njira nkhondo kusewera ufulu kulankhula za unyolo mafakitale, China akhoza kutenga nthawi yaitali kugonjetsa kumtunda ndi kumtunda pang'ono. pang'onopang'ono, yomwe ndi njira yayitali.
Komabe, sizowona kunena kuti "nkhondo" iyi ilibe zotsatira zake ndipo ingagwiritsidwe ntchito kwa nthawi yaitali. Chotsatira chachikulu cha kutsekedwa kwa gawo lonse la US ndi ichi: chimapatsa China mwayi wodalira njira za msika, osati mphamvu yokonzekera, kuthetsa vutoli.
Chiganizochi chingawoneke chovuta kuchimvetsetsa poyamba. Titha kumvetsetsa kaye mphamvu yakukonzekera koyera ndi chiyani, mwachitsanzo, mumakampani opanga ma semiconductor, pali ntchito yapadera yothandizira kafukufuku wamkulu waukadaulo, wotchedwa "teknoloji yayikulu kwambiri yophatikizira dera komanso njira yonse", makampaniwa amatchedwa 02 ndalama zapadera, zopanda ndalama.
02 apadera makampani ambiri atenga, pamene wolemba anali mu semiconductor ndalama, pamene kafukufuku kampani anaona zambiri "02 wapadera" anasiya chitsanzo, ataona kumverera kwa osakaniza, tinganene bwanji? Zida zambiri zomwe zaunjikidwa m'nyumba yosungiramo katundu ndi dzanja la imvi, mwina pokhapokha pamene atsogoleri oyendera adzatulutsidwa kuti akapulitsidwe.
Zachidziwikire, pulojekiti yapadera ya 02 idapereka ndalama zamtengo wapatali zamabizinesi m'nyengo yozizira panthawiyo, koma kumbali ina, kugwiritsa ntchito bwino ndalamazi sikuli kwakukulu. Kudalira ndalama zothandizira ndalama zokha (ngakhale ndalamazo zili makampani), ndikuwopa kuti n'zovuta kupanga matekinoloje ndi zinthu zomwe zingathe kugulitsidwa. Aliyense amene anachitapo kafukufuku amadziwa izi.
Nkhondo za chip zisanachitike, China inali ndi zida zambiri zovutirapo, zida ndi makampani ang'onoang'ono a chip omwe amavutika kuti apikisane ndi anzawo akunja, ndipo makampani ngati SMIC, JCET komanso Huawei nthawi zambiri samasamala kwambiri, ndipo n'zosavuta kumvetsetsa chifukwa chake. : sangagwiritse ntchito zinthu zapakhomo pamene akanatha kugula zinthu zakunja zokhwima ndi zotsika mtengo.
Koma kutsekedwa kwa United States pamakampani a chip ku China kwabweretsa mwayi wosowa kumakampaniwa.
Pankhani ya blockade, opanga zapakhomo omwe adanyalanyazidwa kale ndi nsalu kapena zomata zoyeserera adathamangitsidwa kumashelefu, ndipo zida zambiri ndi zida zidatumizidwa pamzere wopanga kuti zitsimikizidwe. Ndipo chilala chotalikirapo ndi mvula ya mafakitale ang'onoang'ono apanyumba mwadzidzidzi zidawona chiyembekezo, palibe amene adayerekeza kuwononga mwayi wamtengo wapatali uwu, kotero adagwiranso ntchito molimbika kukonza zinthu.
Ngakhale uku ndikuzungulira kwamkati kwamalonda, kukakamizidwa kuti atuluke pamsika, koma kuchita bwino kwake kumakhalanso kothandiza kuposa mphamvu yokonzekera: chipani chimodzi chachitsulo cholowa m'malo mwanyumba, gulu limodzi likugwira udzu, komanso sayansi ndiukadaulo. board rich effect ouziridwa ndi semiconductor kumtunda pafupifupi gawo lililonse ofukula pali makampani ambiri mu voliyumu.
Tawerengera momwe amapindulira makampani aku China omwe adatchulidwa mu semiconductor zaka khumi zapitazi (makampani okhawo omwe ali ndi zaka khumi zogwira ntchito mosalekeza amasankhidwa), ndipo tiwona kukula koonekera bwino: zaka 10 zapitazo, phindu lonse lamakampani apakhomowa linali. oposa 3 biliyoni okha, ndipo pofika 2022, phindu lawo lonse linaposa 33.4 biliyoni, pafupifupi kuŵirikiza ka 10 kuposa zaka 10 zapitazo.
Nthawi yotumiza: Oct-30-2023
